Google's cheapest new model has a price that doubles on New Year's Day
Gemini 3.7 Flash costs $0.75 per million input tokens. In January it will cost $1.50, and Google said so at launch.
The introductory rate is $0.75 in and $3.75 out per million tokens. Both double, to $1.50 and $7.50, on 1 January 2027. The model replaces 3.6 Flash as Google's volume tier, aimed at the high throughput work where cost per token decides whether a product is viable at all.
Why this one is different
The scheduled increase is unusual and worth taking seriously. Model pricing normally falls, and buyers have built four years of planning assumptions on that. A published date on which a rate doubles is a different kind of commitment: it is honest, it is plannable, and it quietly tells you the launch price was below cost.
Model prices normally fall. This one has a date on which it doubles.
How we got here
- 2023 to 2025Per token prices fall steadily and steeply, and everybody builds their forecasts on the assumption that they keep falling.
- 21 Jul 2026Gemini 3.6 Flash arrives as the volume tier.
- 13 Aug 20263.7 Flash replaces it with an introductory rate and a published expiry.
What it does and does not mean
One price schedule is not a trend, and Google has not said the increase applies to anything else. Introductory pricing is also a normal commercial tactic rather than a confession. But it is worth noticing what it implies: if a launch rate needs an expiry date, the economics of serving a frontier model at volume are tighter than four years of falling prices suggested, and anyone whose product only works at $0.75 has a deadline they did not choose.